|We don’t usually discuss politics and most other subjects where there is deep polarization, but we thought this was relatively non-partisan.
At a pre-election event Wednesday night, The Wall Street Journal and NBC News sat down with their two bipartisan pollsters—Republican William McInturff, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, and Democrat Frederick S. Yang, a partner at Hart Research Associates—to discuss the coming midterm election:
1. The Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle May Help Republicans Maintain a Senate Majority
The Senate battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court after he was accused of sexual misconduct decades ago may help Republicans maintain and even expand a majority in the Senate, Mr. McInturff and Mr. Yang agreed. Democratic voters have long been motivated to vote in the midterm election and oppose President Trump, but the confirmation battle has helped to mobilize Republican voters.
“We’ve already seen the Judge Kavanaugh effect, it’s happening in red states all over the country and it’s changing the U.S. Senate picture,” Mr. McInturff said. “This is the first time ever this cycle where I think there’s a very good chance Republicans go up in the Senate.”
2. The Fundamentals Still Favor Democrats
Not only is the president’s approval rating relatively low, but a large number of House Republicans have retired ahead of the election, stripping the party of some of the advantages of incumbency.
3. The Election May Hint at the 2020 Presidential Campaign
Several Democrats who are running on a more progressive platform, particularly in the gubernatorial races in Florida and Georgia, could become a model for the Democratic party.
— Andrew Duehren
Enjoyed this article?
Go back to: Features